{"id":10664,"date":"2021-08-08T14:54:03","date_gmt":"2021-08-08T14:54:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.buyucoin.com\/crypto-labs\/s2f-creator-plan-b-reconfirms-his-confidence-in-bitcoin-forecast-this-bull-is-not-over-and-64k-was-not-the-top\/"},"modified":"2021-08-08T14:54:03","modified_gmt":"2021-08-08T14:54:03","slug":"s2f-creator-plan-b-reconfirms-his-confidence-in-bitcoin-forecast-this-bull-is-not-over-and-64k-was-not-the-top","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.buyucoin.com\/crypto-labs\/s2f-creator-plan-b-reconfirms-his-confidence-in-bitcoin-forecast-this-bull-is-not-over-and-64k-was-not-the-top\/","title":{"rendered":"S2F Creator Plan B \u2018Reconfirms\u2019 His Confidence in Bitcoin Forecast \u2014 \u2018This Bull Is Not Over and $64K Was Not the Top\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last month, the popular bitcoin analyst and creator of the stock-to-flow price model, Plan B, explained that he believed the \u201cbull is not over.\u201d On August, 6, Plan B is still showing confidence in his forecast and reconfirmed his message from last month. Meanwhile, bitcoin prices have been able to bounce back and on Sunday, bitcoin prices tapped a high of $45,355.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Plan B Shows Confidence in Previous Forecast While Bitcoin Prices Tap Fresh Highs<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) has been on a tear lately and oddly enough in the face of regulatory uncertainty<\/a> in the United States. BTC<\/a> has gained over 11% during the last seven days and 30-day stats show the leading crypto asset is up 31% against the U.S. dollar. Since the opening trading sessions on August 5, at $39,734 per BTC<\/a>, the crypto asset has gained 12.97% in three days. Moreover, following the bullish action, the infamous pseudonym leveraged by the Twitter account @100trillionusd, <\/a>also known as \u201cPlan B,\u201d seems more confident the bitcoin bull run is not over.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin.com News has reported on Plan B\u2019s outlook on various occasions since he started documenting his popular stock-to-flow (S2F) price model<\/a> back in March 2019. The incognito analyst has also updated the S2F price model to the stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model.<\/p>\n

On June 1, Bitcoin.com News explained<\/a> how Plan B thought the S2FX model was still intact and he claimed it was starting to look like 2013. A number of analysts have been comparing this run to the 2013 bull run because during that time BTC<\/a> saw a double top.<\/p>\n

BTC<\/a>\/USD chart via Bitstamp on Sunday, August 8, 2021.<\/p>\n

On August 1, Plan B explained that BTC<\/a>\u2019s realized capitalization was on the rise and in his opinion, things were looking bullish. \u201cBitcoin\u2019s realized cap is rising again,\u201d Plan B said<\/a>. \u201cRealized cap is the average price at which all 18.77M BTC<\/a> were last transacted (calculated over all UTXO\u2019s). Also, the few sellers at the moment sell at a profit (not a loss like in May and June). IMO this is bullish.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time the number of bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) in circulation today is 18,779,913 BTC<\/a> and the reward halving is expected in just over 1,008 days from now. At that time, BTC<\/a>\u2019s issuance will become far more scarce, as the block reward of 6.25 coins per block will be reduced to 3.125 coins per block post halving.<\/p>\n

Plan B\u2019s S2F or S2FX is all about scarcity and essentially the crypto asset\u2019s low issuance rate and scarcity should bolster the value of BTC<\/a> over the long term. Basically the stock-to-flow measures the abundance or lack of when it comes to BTC<\/a>\u2019s long-term issuance rate. The current amount of BTC<\/a> (stock) is simply divided by the number of bitcoins produced (flow) on an annual basis.<\/p>\n

In Plan B\u2019s original thesis<\/a> he also published a chart of other products like precious metals (gold & silver) to describe how the S2F model works with different commodities. Gold historically has shown the highest S2F ratio at least in terms of commodities like precious metals.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has a much higher S2F ratio which means over the long term, the crypto asset retains value or rises from significant demand. In 2019, when Plan B published his original model he added that \u201cgold and silver, which are totally different markets, are in line with the bitcoin model values for SF.\u201d The analyst also emphasized there\u2019s an \u201cindication of a power law relationship.\u201d The pseudonymous analyst added:<\/p>\n

The model predicts a bitcoin market value of $1trn after next halving in May 2020, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000.<\/p>\n

Plan B: \u2018August Will Close Above $47K\u2019<\/h2>\n

After May 2020, the price of BTC<\/a> did jump over the $55K per unit zone and the market valuation also spiked over a trillion dollars in overall value. Since then the price of BTC<\/a> has dropped significantly on two occasions but Plan B is still confident.<\/p>\n

On August 6, Plan B re-tweeted<\/a> an older tweet he published on July 2 and said: \u201cJust to reconfirm this message from last month.\u201d At that time, Plan B said that he believes the bull run is not over and today it seems he\u2019s fairly certain his old statement from the first week of July still rings true. Plan B said<\/a>:<\/p>\n

My onchain data (color overlay in the chart below) tells me this bull is not over and 64K was not the top. That is in line with [the] S2F(x) model. Also my floor indicator (not based on S2F) says we will not go below $47K Aug close.<\/p>\n

Plan B clarified that the floor estimator was not based on S2F when a person asked the analyst a question<\/a>. \u201cSo Aug will see the price go above 47k? Is that what you mean?\u201d the Twitter account dubbed \u201cCrypto Storm\u201d asked. \u201cAugust will close above 47k. Ps, this floor estimator is not based on S2F,\u201d Plan B replied<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What do you think about Plan B\u2019s current assessment? Are you a fan of the S2F or S2FX price models? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Bitcoin News
\nMarket Updates, @100trillionusd, 2013, Bitcoin, Bitcoin (BTC), BTC, Bull Market, Charts, Cryptocurrency, Market Update, Markets, markets and prices, Plan B, Poll, Prices, S2F, S2F Break, S2F(X) model intact, S2FX<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last month, the popular bitcoin analyst and creator of the stock-to-flow price model, Plan B, explained that he believed the \u201cbull is not over.\u201d On August, 6, Plan B is still showing confidence in his forecast and reconfirmed his message from last month. Meanwhile, bitcoin prices have been able to bounce back and on Sunday,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":10665,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blockchain-news","category-coin-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.buyucoin.com\/crypto-labs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10664"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.buyucoin.com\/crypto-labs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.buyucoin.com\/crypto-labs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.buyucoin.com\/crypto-labs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10664"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.buyucoin.com\/crypto-labs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10664\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.buyucoin.com\/crypto-labs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10665"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.buyucoin.com\/crypto-labs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.buyucoin.com\/crypto-labs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.buyucoin.com\/crypto-labs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}