The “Bitcoin Bubble Index” strongly suggests that another local BTC price high will occur this year.

According to new data, Bitcoin (BTC) is in the midst of a “double bubble” and will reach two price peaks this year.

BTC Price Gears Up for the Second Peak

The question of whether Bitcoin’s 2021 bull run will be more like that of 2013 or 2017 — the two years that followed block subsidy halving events — has divided opinion.

The answer could be as simple as looking at one indicator, unrealized profit, and loss (UP&L). Only 2013 has delivered similar coin profitability statistics, according to Edwards. 

He summarised, “New evidence for a Bitcoin double bubble.”

“Bounces were never able to keep unrealized profit and loss above 0.5 in previous cycle tops. Only the double bubble of 2013 and now have done so.”

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This viewpoint also accommodates the widely used stock-to-flow pricing model, which calls for a BTC/USD average of $100,000 or more this year. BTC price double-bubble top in 2021, PlanB, the project’s inventor, had stated that a “worst-case scenario” for Bitcoin would be $135,000 by the end of the year.

Double bubble?

The findings aren’t the only ones that support the “double bubble” theory.

The Bitcoin Bubble Index, a dedicated tracking tool, also shows a two-phase price peak this year.

To put things in perspective, the Bubble Index peaked at 119 on April 14, the same day that BTC/USD achieved its current all-time high of $64,500. It currently stands around 110, almost identical to the peak, with Bitcoin trading at $44,500.

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When Bitcoin was nearing local lows of $29,000 in May, statistics from on-chain analytics startup Glassnode suggested that this year will be similar to 2013.


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